This is The consequences of a war between the United States and North Korea

THECONSEQUENCES OF A WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND NORTH KOREA

United States President Donald Trump has unsettled many observers by responding “I don’t know, we’ll see” to a journalist’s question about a possible war between the United States and North Korea. Over the past few weeks, North Korea has been in the news for conducting repeated missile tests, attempting to show its own battle-readiness. What would a declaration of war between the United States and North Korea entail? What would a nuclear war look like? Is World War Three imminent? Let’s take a closer look.

BACKGROUND- WHY IS THERE CONFLICT ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA?

Until the end of World War II, Japan ruled Korea as a colony. After the war, Korea (like Germany) was split into two regions, the North (allied with Soviet Russia and China) and the South (allied with the United States). Neither side accepted the border, and in 1950 the North invaded the South. Although an armistice was signed in 1953, the Koreas are still technically atwar, separated by a heavily guarded demilitarized zone. After a succession of military dictatorships, South Korea embraced democracy in 1987; North Korea, ruled first by Communist leader Kim Il-sung and then his son and grandson, has the world’s only hereditary Communist dictatorship.

WHAT’SCHANGED

The two Koreas and the surrounding countries have lived in constant tension for six decades. Over 800 North Korean, South Korean and American soldiers have been killed in the demilitarized zone (pictured). In 2006, North Korea claimed to have tested a nuclear weapon, creating further tension. North Korea walked out of peace talks in 2009 when it refused to stop nuclear testing. No serious progress has been made since. The North’s traditional ally,China, is said to be increasingly frustrated with the regime.

CHANGEIN NORTH KOREA

Kim Jong-il, the son of North Korea’s founding ruler Kim Il-sung, died in 2011. His son Kim Jong-un succeeded him at the head of the government in Pyongyang. Believed to be 34, Kim Jong-un is one of the world’s youngest rulers. Although Kim Jong-un originally tried to project a more relaxed image than his predecessors, he has not toned down nuclear testing or aggressive rhetoric toward the South and its allies.

CHANGEIN THE UNITED STATES

Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama practised what observers called “strategic patience” with North Korea, watching and waiting to see to what extent its actions would match its words. Donald Trump has been more proactive, tightening economic sanctions against the country, reinforcing missile defense barriers in the South and sending warships into the area. North Korean state media has called these moves “provocation” and warned the U.S. and its allies to be ready for “a super-mighty pre-emptive strike.” Trump, whose actions are sometimes hard to predict, has said it’s “time to solve” the North Korean problem.

CHANGEIN SOUTH KOREA

Starting in the late 1990s, South Korea pursued a “sunshine policy” toward North Korea, trying to improve relations with a steady stream of aid. That policy ended in 2008 under conservative president Lee Myung-bak. Lee’s successor, Park Geun-hye, was also considered hostile to the North. Elections to replace Park, who was impeached in a corruption scandal, are upcoming. The liberal opposition is favoured to win and open further dialogue with the North. But such dialogue may fall on deaf ears, or worse, be too little, too late.

CHANGEIN CHINA AND RUSSIA

During the Cold War era, China and Russia regularly covered for North Korea on the international stage, and supplied it with military and other aid. Into the 21st century, China remained allied with North Korea, but the Chinese leadership has recently shown signs of frustration with its small, demanding and belligerent neighbour. Russia is mainly an observer in the current conflict, but would be directly affected by any war.

POPULATIONAFFECTED

Any conflict on the Korean Peninsula would affect millions of people. Over 75 million people live on the peninsula, 25 million in North Korea and 51 million in the South. China and perhaps Japan could receive millions of refugees, and a nuclear strike in Korea, especially with multiple weapons, would cause massive property damage and loss of life in Japan.

MOBILIZATIONIN NORTH KOREA

Any act of war on the part of the United States or South Korea would lead to the mobilization of the North Korean army, one of the largest in Asia and the fourth largest in the world. Military service is obligatory for all North Koreans. The army is estimated to have 1.2 million serving members and over 6 million reserve and paramilitary personnel, the largest paramilitary force in the world. Any military mobilization would be met with similar mobilizations from China and South Korea.

MOBILIZATIONIN SOUTH KOREA AND THE REST OF THE WESTERN-ALLIED WORLD

The United States and South Korea are working together on a state-of-the-art missile defence system, and have staged joint military manoeuvres this year, along with Japan. Both nations have troops around the demilitarized zone. Other United States allies, especially those in the region, such as Australia, are likely to be drawn into any war.

WHATKIND OF WAR?

A war between North Korea and the U.S. and its allies could take several forms. It could be a protracted conflict involving ground troops, like the first Korean War, which would entail the mobilization of large numbers of American troops. It could be a war fought through precision bombing. In the worst-case scenario, it could be a nuclear war.

THENORTH’S NUCLEAR STRENGTH

Analysts estimate that the North has a significant stock of small nuclear warheads and claims it has conducted five successful nuclear tests. It has repeatedly, over several decades, threatened the United States and the South with nuclear oblivion. However, it has not so far been able to make the warheads small enough to fit on bombs or transport the warheads over any great distance. However, analysts estimate that within 5-10 years, a North Korean nuclear bomb may be a real threat.

THELAST TIME A NUCLEAR BOMB WAS USED

The first and last times that nuclear bombs were used in warfare were the United States’ bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in 1945. Over 200,000 civilians died instantly, while tens of thousands more died from radiation-related illnesses in the years that followed. The cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were flattened. A current nuclear strike would be similarly devastating.

EFFECTSOF A NUCLEAR STRIKE

In the event of a nuclear strike, an area of about five miles around the impact of each bomb would be made uninhabitable, with nearly all buildings damaged or destroyed. Electrical equipment would be knocked out by the bombs’ electromagnetic pulses, and the effects of the blast and the blackout would cause prolonged damage to any economy. Refugees from the destroyed areas would flood into less affected areas, where medical teams would be quickly overwhelmed. Physical, economic and environmental recovery would take decades.

HOWLIKELY IS A NUCLEAR STRIKE?

The expression “the nuclear option” generally means “the last resort.” However, analysts say that recent North Korean military exercises indicate plans to use nuclear weapons in the early stages of the conflict, to repel an anticipated attack from the South. This would cause widespread death and destruction before the rest of the world has time to react.

A THIRDWORLD WAR

North Korea, using typically bombastic language, has threatened to “wipe out” all life on Earth with three thermonuclear bombs. Even if an eventual conflict never reaches that point, there has been speculation about the North “starting World War Three.” But this vision of things dates from a time when China may have entered the conflict on the side of the North, which would have drawn immediate battle lines for a multilateral conflict. That’s harder to imagine now.

CONSEQUENCESFOR THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES

If a war were to begin this year, the North American mainland would probably be relatively safe. North Korea has not yet perfected intercontinental ballistic missile technology, although the weapons are being tested. However, existing North Korean missiles, whether armed with nukes or not, do have the range to hit Japanese and South Korean cities and cause extensive damage.

CONSEQUENCESFOR NORTH KOREA

Reports from North Korean defectors and from rare teams of journalists that manage to diverge from planned itineraries paint a bleak picture of prison camps and widespread food shortages. This situation, combined with the diversion of resources to the military and the damage caused by a conventional or nuclear war, would increase the desperation of the North Korean people and cause widespread refugee flows to China and the South.

END OFTHE KIM REGIME

Military defeat would, in all likelihood, spell the end for the Kim regime. It’s difficult to imagine a victorious American, South Korean or NATO general negotiating with Kim. However, any change in leadership would require a massive cultural change in North Korea, where people are exposed to a constant stream of regime propaganda. “Brainwashing starts in the womb, and it becomes natural to bow to the portraits of the Kims,” one defector told the BBC. If testimonies from defectors are any indication, the North Korean people would have difficulty wrapping their heads around a post-Kim world.

ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

It’s likely that rebuilding postwar North Korea would require massive international investments. When the Berlin Wall fell, the cost of East German reunification was estimated at 2 trillion euros in today’s money, and the Eastern economy still receives subsidies from the West to make up for decades of slowed economic development. The gap between the two Koreas in terms of standard of living, technological advancement and mentality is much greater, raising concerns that the costs may be higher.

OTHERRESULTS OF REBUILDING

Securing the North’s nuclear weapons, organizing refugee flows and gaining the trust of the North Korean people would represent a challenge for countries involved in the reunification effort. The state’s estimated 80,000 labour camp inmates would be freed and reintegrated into a rapidly changing society, and the nuclear threat would be defused. South Korea’s industries could access the North’s raw materials. Ultimately, the peninsula could become “the Germany of Asia.” But when recovery from a nuclear strike is factored in, the transition could take several decades.